In 2010, the total number of domestic product (GDP) of Japan was first surpassed by India. After 13 years, the Japanese nominal GDP was surpassed by Germany and reduced to the fourth place in the world.
The latest preliminary statistics released by the Japanese Cabinet Mansion show that in 2023, the GDP of Japan (GDP) in the name of Japan was US $ 4.21.06 trillion, a year -on -year increase of 5.7%, and the actual GDP increased by 1.9%year -on -year.
According to the data released by the German Federal Statistics Bureau in mid -January, according to the US dollar, the total GDP in Germany in 2023 was about $ 4.5 trillion, an increase of about 6.5%compared to 2022.
The segmentation data released in the same period also shows that in the fourth quarter of 2023, Japan’s actual GDP decreased by 0.1%month -on -month, and the converting adult rate decreased by 0.4%, and negative growth for two consecutive quarters means that the Japanese economy officially fell into a structural recession.
However, it is worth noting that the relevant economic data released by the Japanese government did not drag down the Japanese stock market.By the time of the first financial publication, the carnival of the Japanese stock market continued.On the 16th, the Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.86%to 38487.24 points, and the highest on the market was to 38865.06 points, which was renewed since January 1990.
Is it a disaster caused by exchange rate?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also estimated last December that calculated in the US dollar that the Japanese nominal GDP in 2023 was US $ 4.23 trillion, while the German nominal GDP was $ 4.43 trillion.
Past data showed that in 1968, Japan’s GDP total was nearly 150 billion US dollars, accounting for nearly 6%of the global total.That year, Japan surpassed the Federal Germany at that time, and jumped into the world’s second largest economic power, second only to the United States.After 30 years, the Japanese economy ushered in a period of gold.In 1978, Japan’s GDP spanned the $ 1 trillion mark.At that time, the global GDP total was 8.6 trillion US dollars, and the Japanese economy accounted for about 12%.In 1995, the Japanese economy ushered in a peak timeNagpur Investment. The total GDP was as high as US $ 5.5 trillion, accounting for 18%of the global proportion; the United States was $ 7.6 trillion in the United States.In 2012, the Japanese economy reached another peak. At that time, GDP exceeded 6.2 trillion US dollars, accounting for 8.34%of the world’s.
Since then, Japan’s GDP has declined at an unexpected speed.In 2021, Japan’s GDP fell below $ 5 trillion to $ 4.93 trillion.Since then, with the fluctuation of Japan’s domestic economy and the impact of the yen depreciation, Japan’s nominal GDP hovers around $ 4 trillion.After being surpassed by India in 2010, the Japanese economy in 2024 ranked third in the world.
This change is considered to be inseparable from the recent fluctuations of the Japanese yen.In January 2022, the yen’s exchange rate was 1 US dollars exchanged for 115 yen.In December 2023, the yen exchange rate was 1 USD for 150 yen. In 2 years, the yen depreciated by 24%.At present, the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is hovering at the 150 mark, which is close at hand from the 33 -year low;Essence
Chen Zilei, director of the Japanese Economic Center of Mumbai to the University of Economic and Trade at the University of Foreign Economics and Trade, told First Finance that the main reason for the volatility of the yen was the differences in monetary policy between the central banks: in the past few years, the Fed and the European Central Bank chose to increase interest rates through sharply to cope with inflation.It maintains a loose modelAhmedabad Stock. I hope that after many years of currency tightening, it will promote price growth. "From the perspective of economic scale, if the US dollar is priced, in fact, the economic overall economy has been shrinking in the first quarter of last year in Japan."
There is also a new high in the Japanese stock market.The latest survey report of Japanese media on listed companies shows that the net profit of Japanese listed companies in 2023 reached a record high, an increase of 13%over 2022 to 43.5 trillion yen (about 2.08 trillion yuan).Chen Yan, Executive Dean of the Japanese Enterprise (India) Research Institute, explained to reporters: "These Japanese listed companies have a common characteristics, that is, actively investing in overseas investment, and the proportion of internationalization is high. Especially Japan’s business communes. Therefore, relying on exchange rate changes.It can increase the benefits of the enterprise, which is more about the foreign exchange algorithm behind this.
However, the interview targets emphasized the first financial and educated that the order change of Japan’s GDP in the global scope is not appropriate to blame the exchange rate fluctuation.Chen Yan’s example, the yen exchange rate rose from 107.77 yen in 2000 to 79.79 yen in 2012, and then fell to 131.50 yen in 2022.He said: "The yen exchange rate is changing, but the trend of Japanese economic scale has gradually declined in the world. For example, 2012 is the year when the yen exchange rate is the highest.8.34%of the total. The total size is higher than that in 2022, but compared with the proportion of 15.45%in 1989, it is close
Chen Zilei also said that if Japan’s inflation is considered, the actual growth rate of the Japanese economy has not changed much. "The Japanese Jing index is mainly large enterprises, and the stock market performance reflects the situation of large enterprises.Without expanding, the distribution of the stock market is actually inclined to large enterprises and capitalists, which has led to the "Matthew effect" of the strong.
May be surpassed by India in 2026?
After the status of the third largest economy in the world, the Japanese government hopes to catch up.The Kishida government has positioned the time of about three years as a "change period", saying that it will concentrate their efforts to achieve continuous salary increase and expand equipment investment.At the same time, supplemented by the tax treatment policy of a specific industry, it reduces the burden on the people and enterprises.
Senior Economic Analyst of Japan’s First Institute of Life Economic Research Institute, Naga Ribiri said that the devaluation of the yen has increased the income of large multinational companies in Japan, but its income abroad is not included in the GDP in Japan; and more domestic small and medium -sized domestic small and medium -sized small and medium -sized domestic small and mediumDue to rising raw materials and insufficient manpower, the business continues to face difficulties.
Chen Zilei believes that one of the three driving carriages that drive the economic development of Japan is personal consumption. Whether it can get rid of the dilemma depends on factors such as corporate salary increase and growth expectations. "What needs to be worried is thatBelow, whether the Matthew effect is more intense, whether the gap between Japanese SME and large enterprises will be further enlated, whether the survival of low -income people will be more difficult, etc.
During the labor negotiations of last spring, the salary increase of Japanese companies was the highest wage increase level since the beginning of statistics has begun for nearly 30 years, and the median salary increase is 3.8%."Spring Dou" this year is imminent.A new survey of Chundou shows that compared with last year, more Japanese companies planned to increase their basic wages this year, and the wage growth rate may be higher than last year.Nomura Securities even predicts that the increase in salary of Chundou this year is 3.9%, and it is not ruled out that it is expected to reach 4%to 4.5%.However, in order to realize the substantial wages that the Kishida government has been exhaling to keep up with or even surpass the price of prices, how to raise a salary increase of 70 % of the employees is the key to reaching the goal.
The latest data shows that in the fourth quarter of last year, the personal consumption accounted for more than one -half of the Japanese economy decreased by 0.2%month -on -month, and the investment in corporate equipment decreased by 0.1%, both in three consecutive quarters.The quarterly decline; the exports of goods and services increased by 2.6%, and the growth of three consecutive quarters.
Chen Zilei believes that in the future, whether Japanese companies’ equipment investment can effectively connect the development of emerging industries and innovative consumption models, it remains to be seen.In his opinion, the "light of hope" of Japan’s economic growth is to lead investment, consumption and exports with emerging industries, and at the same time, we must be alert to the decline of domestic demand under the elderly young child.
Chen Yan believes that Japan has experienced more than 40 years of economic growth since the 1960s, which is mainly promoted by technological innovation. "Because of the technological revolution and business revolution, it has stimulated the growth of the Japanese economy.The scale of the technological revolution in Japan is completely comparable to more than 40 years ago.
Combining IMF expectations, if the Japanese government is weak in the reform of the real economy, Japan’s nominal GDP ranking possibility of further decline between 2026 and 2028. For example, India may replace Japan as the world’s fourth largest economy in 2026.
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